Burkina, Mali and Niger had already shaken up ECOWAS with the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September 2023. Now they have added a new layer by setting up a confederation. All the more reason to disturb the tranquillity of the sub-regional organisation.

How far will the tug-of-war between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the three founding members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), go? While the three Sahelian nations are resolutely turned towards their definitive independence in terms of security, economics and politics, ECOWAS, for its part, has not yet drawn a definitive line under them. The West African community is not giving up hope of their possible return to the sub-regional organisation. As one political scientist explains: ‘The situation is very serious. Article 91 of the ECOWAS treaty, which is a principle of international law, stipulates that there is a notice period to be observed when a country wants to leave an organisation’. The political technician goes further to say that ‘If between now and 28 January 2025, the member countries of the ESA maintain their decision to withdraw from ECOWAS, this effectively means that they have left’, he stresses.

Proof that ECOWAS leaders are still leaving the door ajar for those of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The problem is this. The three countries of the AES do not see things that way. They are already projected into a distant future. And the creation of their confederation is the perfect illustration of their determination to leave ECOWAS effectively and definitively to be autonomous on all levels, notably political, economic, security, diplomatic and social. This, of course, requires much better legal provisions.

According to Article 4 of the treaty establishing the confederation, each country retains its independence and sovereignty, with the exception of powers delegated to the Confederation, such as defence, security, diplomacy and development.

Article 5 reinforces the precedent by going further to state that the three federated states undertake to cooperate in the economic and financial fields with a view to making structuring investments. They do not forget the promotion and integration of peoples through the free movement of people, goods and services, and the right of residence and establishment within the federal area. They have also agreed to create common institutions.

Not to mention their plans to create a common currency.

Which just goes to show how far these three ESA countries have already gone in their commitment to withdraw from ECOWAS. Definitely feeling it.

Despite officially describing the ESA’s decision as ‘hasty’ and ‘ill-considered’, ECOWAS leaders are said to have secretly begged Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to remain members. All in the name of stability and peace in the sub-region. For West African community leaders, the departure of these three countries from the organisation could have serious consequences for both themselves and their citizens in terms of their integration into the region.

However, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are already too far advanced in their decision to back out. They have prepared for the consequences and are ready to accept them. Whatever they may be.

Maria De Dieu