South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is now all set to be re-elected this Friday for a second term by the South African parliament after the African National Congress (ANC) cobbled a delicate Government of National Unity (GNU).
The GNU is a result of the ANC failing to achieve an outright victory nationally and for the first time in 30 years, only managing a meagre 40.2% of the seats in parliament. A first in post-independence South Africa, forcing it to form a coalition government.
Those close to the developments say ANC has reached an agreement with Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) which had 3,9% of the seats in parliament and the Democratic Alliance (DA) who managed 21.8%.
The Julius Malema Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Jacob Zuma led uMkonto weSizwe (MK) have rejected to join the GNU saying they cannot go to bed with the DA which is still haunted by its apartheid history. It remains to be seen if the duo would form a dynamic opposition bloc or at some point they will change and join.
Zuma’s MK shifted the balance of power in the provinces and nationally when it emerged as the third largest party with 14,6% of the national vote.
The MK has overtaken the EFF to become the third largest political party nationally in South Africa after the ANC and DA. EFF is now the fourth largest with a 9,5% slice of the national vote.
The MK got 45% of the KwaZulu Natal (KZN) provincial vote, thereby giving Zuma a strong foundation to relaunch his political career on the platform of radical economic transformation.
MK’s manifesto pledged to “expropriate all land without compensation, transferring ownership to the people under the custodianship of the state and traditional leaders”.
Zuma has in the past week been trying to stop the swearing in of newly elected parliamentarians arguing the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) should first completely do away with the all the electoral challenges that were raised by participating political parties.
However, on Wednesday the South African Constitutional Court threw out the MK interdict application, paving the way for the swearing in of MPs this Friday.
Many political analysts in South Africa say Zuma’s court application was a ruse as his real aim is to destabilise the government as revenge for his sacking in 2028 over corruption allegations.
Since his ouster, Zuma has remained a thorn in the flesh of the ANC. Zuma refused to appear at a judicial commission into State Capture and was subsequently sentenced to 15 months in prison for contempt.
His incarceration caused a mayhem in KZN his home province and Gauteng, the commercial capital. Shopping malls were ransacked and vehicles destroyed or burnt to shells, forcing the military to come out of the barracks to restore peace.
Ramaphosa hand was forced to let Zuma out of prison on medical grounds parole after serving three months of his time. It is this conviction that led to his name being deleted from the MK list for national MPs.
Zuma seems not to be forgiving and will try to go all out to haunt his former political party, the ANC.
The BBC in an analysis post the elections said: “If this is borne out by the final result, Zuma would become the political don of the province and it would give him a base from where to plot Ramaphosa’s downfall – his key objective.”
The finer details of the GNU agreement are not yet public, but it seems the ANC is ready to give the IFP the role of premier in KZN and some seats in the cabinet.
The DA will most likely get influential positions in parliament such as the Speaker of the National Assembly and some powerful parliamentary portfolio committees and one or two cabinet posts.
Many analysts argue that the ANC/DA/IFP GNU may offer stability for the duration of the 5 year term and give South Africa a chance to restart. They also say the GNU is good for the economy and is also preferred by business.
That the GNU is acceptable to business may give wind to the wings of EFF and MK that ANC has chosen to sup with former apartheid regime and capital thus fuelling restlessness in fragile communities where the majority poor stay.
It remains to be seen how Ramaphosa will keep the political ship stable in the rough seas, while keeping at bay the combined forces of the EFF and MK which opposes him at every turn.
These are exciting time in South Africa as the West still see it as a beacon in the region where democracy has been eroded.
The Economist recently published an article arguing, Despite flaws, South Africa’s democracy is stronger than its neighbours. For now, it still has some countries and important blocs that still believe in it.
